M. Xie and T. Kiritoshi (Japan)
Improvement of the simulation, Modelling, spread of fire,cellular automata
Cellular Automata (CA) is a method that has been confirmed in various studies to be useful for simulating the spread of fire. However, the conventional CA method may overestimate the spread of fire because the distance between buildings is not considered. Moreover, accurate simulation is difficult because a simple formula was applied to the spread probability formula. This research aims to improve models in order to provide more accurate simulation. First, we improve the cell making method and spread probability formula and verify its propriety by comparison with the conventional method for a number of districts that were heavily damaged by the Great Hanshin Earthquake Disaster. In addition, we performed simulations of the Gobo-Hidaka district, in which fires may be generated by the predicted Tonankai and Nankai earthquake, and estimate the dynamic phase of the spread of fire in this area. The simulation showed that the fire would increase in velocity, and its progression range would become wider, in areas with many wooden structures and no fireproof buildings.
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