J.C. Romero Corts and A.A. Vzquez (Mexico)
Dynamic model, simulation model, student demand, level equations, grow rates, educative planning.
One of any country’s challenges is to rely on a national educative system which becomes the launching pad into its development and better conditions of life. In a great extent, the competitivity for a country in a global world is the reflex of improving the scientific and technological capacities of each society; that’s why the national education system in each country must be planned carefully, overall in the so called development phase countries, and it is necessary to model the educative demand at short, median and long terms. In this paper the education demand evolution is modeled, in its different levels, at median and long terms using dynamic simulation techniques which consent the generation of scenarios of interest, so, once the demand is forecasted, the corresponding offer must be assigned to achieve an educative system with levels of quality, and coverage according to international indicators. The proposed model can be applied to any country and is implemented with parameters and initial and boundary conditions that correspond to Mexico, for a planning horizon up to middle of the current century; which is the period of time for the maturity of demands generated by the model is in synchronism with Mexico’s demographic evolution.
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